Pure Presence

In the NBA, point guards are often taken for granted, and the position is a scorned one to say the least.  Point guards really don't have much going for them to speak of.  They control the basketball for much of the time, but overall are less productive than players at the other positions by most standards of statistical comparison.

Here is a breakdown of contribution by position from the 2010-11 NBA season.  These numbers are derived from data which credits players for multiple position eligibility as in fantasy basketball, so there is a built in disadvantage for point guards and centers in the list.  Point guards usually only share eligibility as a SG, where a SF can share eligibility as a SG or PF.  In rare instances they do share eligibility as a PG or C, also, but, basically, there are more opportunities for qualification at multiple positions for the SG, SF, and PF of the NBA than there are for the PG and C.

The index used to build the breakdown is called the POWERBALL Index.  It's a simple index that matches a fantasy points league I created by the same name, POWERBALL.  The stats are modified to duplicate the fine edge of production.  Without question it is slightly skewed in favor of the smaller players and, as such, could not be considered the definitive measure of NBA productivity.  It is, however, a very useful index.  It could be called the "thrill" factor.  Here are the stat modifiers:

Minutes Played (MIN) 1

Field Goals Made (FGM) 2

Free Throws Made (FTM) 1

3-point Shots Made (3PTM) 2

Points Scored (PTS) 1

Offensive Rebounds (OREB) 2

Defensive Rebounds (DREB) 1

Assists (AST) 1

Steals (ST) 1

Blocked Shots (BLK) 1

Turnovers (TO) -1

From NBA season stats converted to raw numbers using the POWERBALL Index, the following numbers can be derived based on position eligibility and overall contribution:

League Avg PBPPM

2.136172583

PBPPM By Position Eligibility

PG 2.130621545

SG 2.074336607

SF 2.090387919

PF 2.189735451

C 2.188985476

APBP By Position Eligibility (Instances) TM

PG 2976.043011 (93) 129902

SG 2608.304348 (161) 202444

SF 2666.216561 (157) 200248

PF 2818.834356 (163) 209829

C 2497.151515 (132) 150583

PBPPM-POWERBALL points per minute

APBP-Average POWERBALL points

TM-Total Minutes

Instances-Number of players with eligibility at the position

Based on the NBA data and the POWERBALL data it's easy to see that the average PBPPM numbers for PG are lower than those of the big men, most notably the significantly fewer number of players with PG eligibility in the first place.  Here the SGs and SFs way outdistance the PGs, as well.  Centers are at the same disadvantage as point guards being at the other end of the position spectrum, but there are many more instances of center eligibility in last year's sample than there are instances of point guard eligibility.  


Admittedly, multiple eligibility leads to a huge skew in this data as I stated previously.  Most of the top point guards are true point guards without any other eligibilities.  The SG, SF, and PF, especially, but, also, many of the centers have had their data counted twice or even, in the rare instance of triple eligibility, three times.  This is especially noticeable in the Total Minutes column.  These numbers should match identically.  Instead of getting all upset about the data being skewed, in this case, I think the data is worth pondering, even though the numbers don't reflect correctly on the players at the various positions.  The thing is, this is what we see when we look at the numbers many times...in reverse.  Usually we see data which defines a player by a single position if at all.  This kind of data can be extremely confining.  In the final analysis, the only pure number in this list is the League Avg PBPPM.  There is no duplication of position in this number.  I decided to post the others, anyway, to give everyone an idea of how meaning can be found in data that is apparently meaningless.  That's because I do think there is some meaning in compiling last year's data in this way.

It is at least interesting to look at, and I am sure there is something in it.  I confess I am still trying to get at just what it is.  But I do think there is at least some validation for the all-prevalent notion that the bigger players are more valuable and productive even in this skewed data.  Also, however, I do think it's relevant to note that there are so many more instances of multiple eligibility for the positions other than PG.  For me, this is the proof that interesting realities can be found even in bizarre numbers like these.

There is always power in numbers and, in this case, we see the power not just of statistical driven fan perception but also of versatility and usefulness.  At least on one level, fans see the numbers of the players through a prism of position singularity.  But then there is the absolute dichotomy of data presented which includes position eligibility.  Fans see these, too.  This leads to a powerful fan perception something along the lines of "player A puts up his numbers at more than one position."  I have noticed many times basketball fans basically telling me that a player is on the floor at more than one position at a time.  Makes no sense, but there is power in it, anyway.  No data could back this kind of assertion, but that's not what is most important in this discussion.

I did not have access to NBA floor position data, which would be the real tell all for a position by position break down and comparison, when I started working with these numbers.  I had simply a database of POWERBALL numbers I put together from the fantasy numbers of a points based Yahoo! fantasy basketball league.  I was just working with the numbers I had to see what I could find in them.  So I ended up with some numbers that don't relate to anything.  True, however, in these derivations we can see that PGs are not as versatile as players at other positions on the whole.  That's an important thing to notice.  There are alot fewer of them by eligibility in the commonly viewed original statistical database at Yahoo! than there are of any other position.  That brings us back to the scorn factor.

Over and over I hear the job of PG described as "one thing to do".  Get the ball into the hands of the players who make it happen.  I guess there is some reality to that way of thinking about the job of a point guard.  However, there are some players at the point guard position that really shine above the rest.  They put up POWERBALL points per minute like the big men.  There is obviously Dwyane Wade, who could easily be considered a point guard, albeit a very unorthodoxly styled one, and who totally breaks the mold of all the positions.  He is a POWERBALL beast, averaging 2.8 POWERBALL points per minute.  But as far as the true guards go, we are left with only a few options.  Here are the top 10 POWERBALL players (based on POWERBALL points per minute) from 2010-11 with over 2000 minutes:

Player GP* MPG MIN FGM FTM 3PTM PTS OREB DREB AST ST BLK TO POWERBALL Pts POWERBALL PPM

8 Carmelo Anthony NY SF PF 77 35:43:00 2751 684 507 95 1970 118 445 221 68 46 206 7596 2.761177754
 11 Kevin Love Min PF C 73 35:48:00 2614 482 424 88 1476 330 782 184 45 28 155 7198 2.753634277
 3 Dwight Howard Orl C 78 37:36:00 2933 619 546 0 1784 309 789 107 107 186 279 8029 2.737470167
 6 Amar'e Stoudemire NY PF C 78 36:48:00 2871 744 473 10 1971 198 438 202 71 150 250 7830 2.727272727
 7 Dwyane Wade Mia PG SG 76 37:07:00 2822 692 494 63 1941 123 362 346 111 87 237 7682 2.722182849
 1 Kevin Durant OKC SF 78 38:57:00 3039 711 594 145 2161 57 476 214 88 76 218 8256 2.716683119
 2 Derrick Rose Chi PG 81 37:22:00 3028 711 476 128 2026 81 249 623 85 51 278 8100 2.675033025
 17 Dirk Nowitzki Dal PF 73 34:19:00 2505 610 395 66 1681 50 463 190 38 47 137 6634 2.648303393
 12 Zach Randolph Mem PF C 75 36:15:00 2719 598 300 8 1504 326 588 163 63 25 151 7075 2.602059581
 28 Manu Ginobili SA SG SF 80 30:20:00 2427 441 357 154 1393 42 253 393 123 28 174 6074 2.502678204

The first number is the player's overall rank in total POWERBALL points.  In the top 10, it is easy to notice that only 2 players have PG eligibility, Dwyane Wade and Derrick Rose.  The next PG on the list doesn't check in until 23rd, Monta Ellis at 2.459 PBPPM.  Based on this simple model, we see that production at the point guard on a by the minute basis is very limited.  Doubly damning is the fact that point guards tend to shoot the 3 point shot.  Using the POWERBALL index, a made 3 point shot is valued at 7 POWERBALL points.  A standard  basket on the other hand is valued at 4 points.  Add to that that the top guards with point guard eligibility by production per minute aren't true point guards at all, with the exception of Derrick Rose, and it is REALLY easy to see why point guards are "dis" valued.

Contributing to the problem is the fact that many of the PGs capable of top production by the minute are just simply not playing.  Where is Gilbert Arenas?  Where is Chris Paul?  Where is Baron Davis?  But there are bright spots.  Chauncey Billups and Steve Nash regularly put up POWERBALL numbers per minute in excess of 2.4 and are without a doubt top competitors in the NBA.

Add to that list Deron Williams.  Dating back to 2008-09, Williams has posted a POWERBALL PPM in excess of 2.4 in three consecutive years.  He put up respectable numbers for a point guard before that in 2007-08 and handled himself pretty well in his first two years, but the last three have been really great.  Now, if we can just keep him on the floor for 82 every year like Andre Miller, we will really get to enjoy his play as the years progress.

Williams plays with a smooth aggression that is very easy to undervalue.  But he is SO consistent night in and night out.  When he is on the floor, he is just as in charge as any of the best point guards who have played the game, but this consistency factor is what makes him truly special.  Add to that the fact that he is a true gentleman of the game and a real fan's player, and it's easy to understand his value and importance.  He is a pure player to the core.

Before I go today, just a little more on the point guards around the league.  I really hope we get back to basketball soon, but I would like to say, also, that I really hope we see great things from the PG position this year.  The NBA really needs Chauncey Billups, Chris Paul, Gilbert Arenas, and especially Baron Davis to stand up and lead.  There is a real vacuum of leadership at the point, and I hope we will see that filled this year.  Basketball is alot better when the point guards are producing...